Methodology

What is compared with what, in the order the comparison is attempted, and where it stops being reliable.

The two numbers

Asking is the price on a live listing on the public property portals, collected in full for each area: every listing, not the first pages. Paid is the price of a sale of existing property registered at the Dubai Land Department, published as open data through Dubai Pulse. Registered prices are the amount recorded at registration, not an estimate or a valuation.

How each listing is valued

Each listing is matched against registered sales in this order, and stops at the first step that yields enough comparables:

1. Same building, same bedrooms, size within 15%, last three months. At least three sales. Reliability: high.
2. Same building, any size, last three months. Reliability: medium.
3. Same building, last six months. Reliability: high or medium depending on size match.
4. Same area, size within 15%, last three months, corrected by what this specific building has paid over twelve months and brought to today with the area trend. Reliability: medium.
5. Same area, using the forty closest units rather than eight, so that one tower handing over a batch of units does not take over the median. Reliability: medium if the spread is under 30%, low above it.

At every step, comparables more than 40% away from the median are dropped: related party transfers, size errors and units in another category.

What is excluded

• Off plan, on both sides. It sells at a different price to a different buyer. Only sales of existing property are used from the registry, and only resale listings from the portals.
• Sales outside the three-month window. A twelve-month window introduced a 4.7% bias when tested. Twelve-month history is used only as a correction, brought to today.
• Nominal and partial-share registrations. The register contains entries such as a 67 m² flat recorded at 6,824 AED, around 100 AED per square metre. Those are transfers of a share or of an installment position, not market sales. Any entry below 2,000 AED per square metre is dropped, and any listing whose only comparables were such entries is left out of every published figure rather than reported as being 3,000% over the market.

Why building by building

In Dubai Marina a one bedroom of 76 m² registers between 14,000 and 35,000 AED per square metre depending on the tower. An area median is not a comparable for a specific unit. Building names are matched by their meaningful words, so that DEC Tower 2 matches DEC TOWERS T2 and MAG 218 matches MAG218, while Marina View Tower B does not match Marina View Tower A.

Months of stock

Live resale listings divided by monthly registered sales over the last three months. Below eight months, what comes to market at a sensible price sells; above eighteen, there is more than a year and a half of supply ahead of any seller. Days on market come from the portal listing date; a listing withdrawn and reposted starts again from zero, so the real figure is higher, never lower.

Known limits

• Villas and townhouses are registered by plot code rather than building name, so they match the registry worst. Where most listings in a building could not be matched to sales in the building itself, the page is marked low confidence.
• Listings whose stated size falls outside the range the building registers are probably misclassified on the portal. They are not removed, but they push a building towards low confidence.
• Ten areas are covered. Each new area requires verifying its cadastral name against the registry first: the commercial name and the registered name often differ.

How current the data is

Registry closings through 17 September 2026. Listings collected 20 September 2026. 25,990 listings collected in total, 25,060 of them valued by the engine, and 15,416 resale listings published here after off plan (9,524) and unreliable valuations (120) are set aside. The site is rebuilt weekly.